How Do Meta Platforms' Layoffs Impact Their Stock Outlook? – Seeking Alpha

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jaanalisette/iStock Editorial through Getty Photographs

jaanalisette/iStock Editorial through Getty Photographs
I fee Meta Platforms, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:META) shares as a Purchase.
In my prior September 8, 2022 write-up for META, I highlighted that “slower-than-expected headcount progress” is among the key catalysts for Meta Platforms. This catalyst relating to the moderation in headcount growth has been realized considering META’s current bulletins, and the corporate’s layoffs are the main focus of the present article.
I consider that there must be a greater alignment of Meta Platforms’ prices and income sooner or later considering its layoff plans, which can increase META’s 2023 profitability. As such, I preserve a Purchase ranking for META.
There are some key metrics pertaining to META’s layoff plans which are price noting.
Earlier, Meta Platforms printed an article titled “Mark Zuckerberg’s Message to Meta Staff” within the “Newsroom” part of its company web site on November 9, 2022. On this article, META’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg talked about that the corporate has “determined to cut back the scale of our workforce by about 13% and let greater than 11,000 of our proficient workers go”, whereas “extending our hiring freeze by Q1.”
Compared, META’s headcount has been on a rising development because the starting of this yr. The variety of workers that Meta Platforms had as of end-2021, end-Q1 2022, end-Q2 2022, and Q3 2022 had been 71,970, 77,805, 83,553, and 87,314, respectively as per its prior 10-K and 10-Q filings. In different phrases, Meta Platforms’ headcount ought to decline to barely above 76,000 following the completion of its deliberate layoffs, which suggests that META’s employees energy will probably be again to end-March 2022 ranges.
The components that drove Meta Platforms’ worker layoffs will be present in Mark Zuckerberg’s message for its employees (referred to within the previous part) and the corporate’s Q3 2022 10-Q submitting.
In his message for the corporate’s workers, Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged that “our income outlook is decrease than we anticipated”, and he emphasised that META’s current initiatives like useful resource re-allocation and expense optimization measures “will not deliver our bills in step with our income progress.”
It’s worthy to notice that Meta Platforms’ This fall 2022 top line guidance issued in late-October was disappointing. Particularly, META expects the corporate to generate a income of between $30.0 billion and $32.5 billion for the ultimate quarter of this yr. This interprets right into a fourth quarter income of $31.25 billion for Meta Platforms based mostly on the mid-point of its steering, and that is equal to a -7% YoY high line contraction. Extra importantly, the Wall Road analysts had anticipated that META’s income will decline by a narrower -4% on a YoY foundation in This fall 2022 previous to the corporate’s most up-to-date administration steering disclosure.
Individually, a comparability of META’s Q3 2022 and Q2 2022 10-Q filings additionally presents clues in regards to the pondering behind the corporate’s determination to do layoffs.
Meta Platforms talked about in its Q2 2022 10-Q submitting that “we plan to proceed to rent workers” in order “to help our operations.” This explicit assertion was faraway from the corporate’s newest Q3 2022 10-Q submitting.
As a substitute, META revealed within the firm’s Q3 2022 10-Q submitting that it has “just lately undertaken value discount measures in mild of a tougher working atmosphere”, and famous that “a few of these measures might contain up-front prices and outlays of money to cut back sure longer-term bills.”
In a nutshell, META is affected by a misalignment between prices and income, and the corporate has determined to make the most of layoffs as one of many expense optimization initiatives to deal with this problem.
As an illustration, Meta Platforms’ working prices elevated by +32.6% for fiscal 2021, and this did repay with the next +37.2% progress within the firm’s income final yr. In distinction, META is likely going to report a single-digit decline in its full-year income for fiscal 2022 based mostly on its This fall steering, so there isn’t a justification for larger bills and elevated investments.
The layoffs and the moderation in headcount progress are anticipated to have a constructive affect on Meta Platforms’ enterprise outlook.
In an 8-K filing issued on November 9, 2022, META famous that the corporate has diminished the midpoint of its steering for complete bills in 2023 from $98.5 billion beforehand to $97 billion now. The midpoint of Meta Platforms’ 2023 capital expenditures steering was additionally lower from $36.5 billion earlier to the present $35.5 billion estimate. Meta Platforms has made these modifications to its 2023 administration steering in view of its “plan so as to add fewer workers in 2023 than we beforehand anticipated” as highlighted in its current 8-Okay submitting.
Primarily based on my calculations, Meta Platforms’ up to date 2023 steering supplies a excessive single-digit share increase to the corporate’s backside line subsequent yr.
There are additionally two key gadgets that traders ought to take note of.
Firstly, the layoffs and different value optimization measures mustn’t have an effect on Meta Platforms’ income in a significant approach. Meta Platforms emphasised in its November 2022 8-Okay submitting that it’s sustaining its This fall 2022 income steering that it offered in late-October. This should not be a shock, as META’s weak near-term income outlook is essentially attributable to weak macroeconomic situations, moderately than an absence of investments to help high line progress.
Secondly, Meta Platforms’ precise bills for FY 2023 would possibly turn into even decrease than the corporate’s present steering, considering its observe report. As an illustration, META initially guided in October 2021 that its fiscal 2022 bills will probably be within the $91-97 billion vary, however the firm has already lowered its FY 2022 expense steering to between $85 billion and $88 billion in October this yr.
Whereas it can be crucial that META is doing the best factor by pulling value levers, additionally it is crucial that the funding group has a positive view of the corporate’s actions. As such, it’s essential to see what analysts are “saying” and desirous about Meta Platforms’ current value optimization strikes like layoffs.
A November 9, 2022 Searching for Alpha Information article cited feedback from MKM Companions’ analyst noting that META’s deliberate layoffs had been “a step in the best route, basically demonstrating that Zuckerberg cares about near-term investor expectations.”
Searching for Alpha Information subsequently reported on November 19, 2022 that Meta Platform was “amongst new names in UBS (UBS) 2023 inventory focus record” on the premise that META “is now taking steps to be extra capital environment friendly (e.g., layoffs)” and that “may very well be a supply of earnings upside by 2023.”
Additionally, there have been no new sell-side analyst ranking downgrades in November 2022 to this point following the layoff bulletins, as per data taken from Searching for Alpha.
Due to this fact, it’s cheap to conclude that analysts basically are viewing Meta Platforms’ current layoff plans in a constructive mild.
I take the view that the long-term outlook for Meta Platforms’ inventory is sweet resulting from two key causes.
The primary purpose is that the expansion prospects of the worldwide digital promoting market in the long term stay first rate. Based on Greenwich Capital Group‘s most up-to-date Q3 2022 Adtech & Advertising Providers business replace report, the scale of the worldwide digital promoting market is anticipated to develop at a wholesome 14% CAGR for the 2022-2026 interval, whereas the digital promoting penetration fee is projected to rise from 66% to 74% in the identical time-frame.
The second purpose is that META has the potential to drive higher monetization for a few of its services. In my September 8, 2022 article, I touched on “early indicators that Reels’ fee of monetization might exceed expectations.” Individually, a November 18, 2022 Searching for Alpha Information article cited Zuckerberg’s feedback that META goals to “monetize WhatsApp and Messenger extra”, based mostly on his views that “enterprise messaging might be going to be the subsequent main pillar” for Meta Platforms.
META inventory continues to be rated as a Purchase. I’ve thought of the consequences of Meta Platforms’ current layoff plans, sell-side analysts’ sentiment in direction of the inventory, and the corporate’s long-term outlook in deciding on a Purchase ranking for its shares.
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Those that consider that the pendulum will transfer in a single route endlessly or reside at an excessive endlessly finally will lose large sums. Those that perceive the pendulum’s habits can profit enormously. ~ Howard Marks
Disclosure: I/now we have no inventory, choice or comparable by-product place in any of the businesses talked about, and no plans to provoke any such positions throughout the subsequent 72 hours. I wrote this text myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. I’m not receiving compensation for it (apart from from Searching for Alpha). I’ve no enterprise relationship with any firm whose inventory is talked about on this article.

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